Drought frequency, conservancies & pastoralist wellbeing in Kenya

Portions of group ranches in northern Kenya communally held by pastoralists were removed from grazing to support wildlife and encourage tourism. These community-based conservancies (CBCs) were designed to benefit CBC members through regular payments, possible wages, improved security, etc. For the article “Drought frequency, conservancies, and pastoral household well-being” published in Ecology and Society 29(1):27 in 2024 (https://ecologyandsociety.org/vol29/iss1/art27/), Randall Boone et al used a coupled-systems simulation to quantify potential changes in livestock numbers and pastoralist wellbeing associated with the presence of CBC core and buffer areas.

The interannual precipitation coefficient of variation (CV) for the focal CBCs in Samburu County was 22% (706 mm average precipitation). They altered precipitation variability to span from 10% to 60% CV while maintaining the average. Compared to a simulation with observed precipitation and all rangelands available for grazing, when herders did not use the CBC core areas and seasonally avoided buffer areas, there was an 11% decline in livestock numbers supported. At CVs above 30%, livestock population declined dramatically. When drought was made moderately more frequent (CV 27%), the number of livestock declined by 15%. Members receive various benefits as part of CBC communities, but payments are small and most households receive none. The results suggest that payments must be raised to maintain the wellbeing of residents in conservancies. Additional adaptive pathways and perhaps external support will be needed in future as drought frequency increases and livestock populations decrease.

Posted on 18 March 2024 in Pastoralism & Climate Change, Pastoralism & Natural Resources, Pastoralism, Mobility & Land Tenure